Hope rises in Iraq...

A nice article by Andrew Sullivan in the Times online. Despite the bodycount, there is hope in Iraq.

For all this, however, it remains true that the past few months in the Middle East have not been without opportunity and even some hope. The training of Iraqi troops is slowly, painfully, bearing some fruit. An American soldier is unlikely to recognise a Syrian accent on the street, and see an insurgent. A trained Iraqi soldier can. The primary goal for the American forces in the immediate future (other than training Iraqi troops) is protecting the economic infrastructure — oil pipelines, the electricity grid. Unemployment, meanwhile, is dropping fast.

Politically the arrival of Zalmay Khalilzad as American ambassador to Iraq has improved the dynamic. Khalilzad is a shrewd negotiator, someone able to navigate the treacherous turns of Arab, sectarian politics. Thanks in part to Khalilzad’s entreaties, Sunni Arabs turned out in large numbers in the constitutional referendum last month and are gearing up for more heavy involvement in the parliamentary elections next month.

Many Sunni Arab leaders have begun to realise they have two essential options: they can try to make the new Iraq work, or they can go down the long slide to anarchy, jihadism and civil war.

In the Arab world, of course, it is not impossible for an entire community to choose self-destruction over constructive engagement. The Palestinians are Exhibit A in this respect. But Khalilzad has won some concessions.

In a conciliatory gesture to the Sunnis, the Kurds and Shi’ites have agreed to revisit constitutional matters of federalism and distribution of oil revenue after the elections. Shi’ite restraint in the face of massive jihadist and Sunni provocation has been remarkable. Last week saw the Iraqi government soften its opposition to former Ba’athist commanders playing a part in the Iraqi army, another key measure to win over Sunni elites. If the government can begin to co-opt some of the former Sunni establishment then there is a chance to seduce successive slivers of the Sunni population to the new democracy.

There are already divisions within the insurgency between former Ba’athists and the jihadist foreigners who commit some of the worst atrocities. The mass murder of Muslims, even in mosques, by the Zarqawi forces in Iraq has prompted Al-Qaeda leaders to worry that their cause might be tainted in the minds of the general population. One result of the increasing violence might actually, therefore, work to the advantage of the government. After all, many Sunni Arabs are educated, relatively wealthy and contemptuous of the Jordanian and Saudi fanatics who are clearly using their country for a broader, deeper jihad against the West and any non-Wahhabist Muslims.