What if Pakistan goes terrorist?

A great symposium on Iran on FrontPage Mag leads to some interesting comments on Pakistan from Steve Schippert, co-founder of the Center for Threat Awareness.

But perhaps too great a share of the focus is put on Iran’s nuclear program and the unending international debate that drags on with all the alacrity of Puxatawny Phil on a cold February morning. By that I mean, long before Iran achieves their own weapons-grade fissile material, we are likely to see the fall of Musharraf and the evaporation of a nuclear-armed Pakistan as an ally in the global conflict against Islamist terrorists. There is an insurgency afoot in Pakistan that gets scant attention, and it grows stronger by the day. Before you raise your eyebrows, this has everything to do with Iran, the global epicenter of terrorism.

Waiting in the wings to replace Musharraf is former ISI chief, Islamist Hamid Gul, at least as the public face of a new murky ruling cabal consisting of an alliance among al-Qaeda, the Taliban, ISI (Pak Intel) Islamists and the increasing number of generals splitting away from Musharraf. Sharing some degree of power with him will surely be Aslam Beg, another Islamist who openly called for an alliance with Iran while he was the Army Chief of Staff. Gul is quoted as saying in 2004, "I turned against America because they betrayed the Afghan nation."

And with the assassination or overthrow of Musharraf comes the birth of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the first nuclear terrorist power and an instant nuclear ally for the Iranian mullahs. The number of al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters amassed in North and South Waziristan and the North West Frontier Province & FATA is estimated now at over 200,000. It is not an unreasonable assessment that the fall of the Musharraf government could well happen within this calendar year. The face of the conflict we think we know would then change in horrific fashion overnight. Buckle up.

So is it possible that by focusing almost solely on Iran's own program we can miss similar ends by different means? It is foolish to dismiss and unwise to ignore.

Their terrorism should dictate policy, not their reactors, per se.