My name is Fred and I am a gay conservative living in Ottawa. This blog supports limited government, the right of the State of Israel to live in peace and security, and tries to expose the threat to us all from cultural relativism, post-modernism, and radical Islam. I am also the founder of the Free Thinking Film Society in Ottawa (

Friday, October 26, 2007

Predicting climate change????

Climate is way too complex for our simple models...this article is from the New Scientist....

Climate change models, no matter how powerful, can never give a precise prediction of how greenhouse gases will warm the Earth, according to a new study.

The result will provide ammunition to those who argue not enough is known about global warming to warrant taking action.

The analysis focuses on the temperature increase that would occur if levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubled from pre-Industrial Revolution levels. The current best guess for this number – which is a useful way to gauge how sensitive the climate is to rising carbon levels – is that it lies between 2.0 C and 4.5 C. And there is a small chance that the temperature rise could be up to 8C or higher.

To the frustration of policy makers, it is an estimate that has not become much more precise over the last 20 years.

Ultimately, the papers also illustrate the limits to which models, even those produced by powerful supercomputers, can help politicians make decisions.

"This finding reinforces not only that climate policies will necessarily be made in the face of deep, irreducible uncertainties," says Roger Pielke, a climate policy expert at the University of Colorado at Boulder, US. "But also the uncomfortable reality – for climate modellers – that finite research dollars invested in ever more sophisticated climate models offer very little marginal benefit to decision makers."


Blogger Swift said...

North and Wu's recent study showed climate models over emphasized CO2 influence on the climate. They also showed the solar contribution to climate change was underestimated. Isn't it strange that this wasn't front page news.

12:46 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...'ve convinced me! We should definitely just stop trying to do any analysis. On the very unlikely chance that there is a problem looming, surely it won't be serious, right? I don't know about you, but I'm willing to take that chance. I sure don't give a sh*t about the world my daughter will inherit.

After all, you guys are so sure of yourselves - you must be, since you propagate every piece of contradiction and ignore every piece of support.

2:54 PM  
Blogger GayandRight said...

Look, if you believe that global warming is human-induced...and that it is a huge problem, then what is our best option. I maintain that the ONLY option is adaptation. I say that because the Chinese, the Indians, the Koreans, and others are NOT going to cutback on emissions.

And, that leads to another question..when will be start working on an adaptation plan?

7:51 PM  

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