GayandRight

My name is Fred and I am a gay conservative living in Ottawa. This blog supports limited government, the right of the State of Israel to live in peace and security, and tries to expose the threat to us all from cultural relativism, post-modernism, and radical Islam. I am also the founder of the Free Thinking Film Society in Ottawa (www.freethinkingfilms.com)

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

We need to keep watching the sun....

Here's an article by astronomer Dr. David Whitehouse about the Sun and its impact on climate...

The past decade has been warmer than previous ones. It is the result of a rapid increase in global temperature between 1978 and 1998. Since then average temperatures have held at a high, though steady, level. Many computer climate projections suggest that the global temperatures will start to rise again in a few years. But those projections do not take into account the change in the Sun's behaviour. The tardiness of cycle 24 indicates that we might be entering a period of low solar activity that may counteract man-made greenhouse temperature increases. Some members of the Russian Academy of Sciences say we may be at the start of a period like that seen between 1790 and 1820, a minor decline in solar activity called the Dalton Minimum. They estimate that the Sun's reduced activity may cause a global temperature drop of 1.5C by 2020. This is larger than most sensible predictions of man-made global warming over this period.

It's something we must take seriously because what happened in the 17th century is bound to happen again some time. Recent work studying the periods when our Sun loses its sunspots, along with data on other Sun-like stars that may be behaving in the same way, suggests that our Sun may spend between 10 and 25 per cent of the time in this state. Perhaps the lateness of cycle 24 might even be the start of another Little Ice Age. If so, then our Sun might come to our rescue over climate change, mitigating mankind's influence and allowing us more time to act. It might even be the case that the Earth's response to low solar activity will overturn many of our assumptions about man's influence on climate change. We don't know. We must keep watching the sun.

3 Comments:

Blogger Swift said...

You missed one point. If the theory is right and we have a temperature decline the IPCC estimate of the influence of the sun is way too low. this in turn makes the estimate of the effect of CO2 much too high. If we have the cooling predicted there is no problem with CO2.

3:40 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

the writer still believes we are warming the planet even while saying the sun's activity will cool us. duh. this guy bis a scientist?

8:24 AM  
Blogger bigcitylib said...

What he's saying is that if solar activity eases off, as he suspects it will, the progess of global warming will be impeded. Once it increases again, then global warming will come back with a vengeance.

Two years ago same guy was saying Sun drove AGW, but that theory crashed and burned.

9:31 AM  

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