GayandRight

My name is Fred and I am a gay conservative living in Ottawa. This blog supports limited government, the right of the State of Israel to live in peace and security, and tries to expose the threat to us all from cultural relativism, post-modernism, and radical Islam. I am also the founder of the Free Thinking Film Society in Ottawa (www.freethinkingfilms.com)

Thursday, May 01, 2008

Is Global Cooling consistent with Global Warming???

No matter what the weather or climate...nothing is inconsistent with global warming models...
For a while now I've been asking climate scientists to tell me what could be observed in the real world that would be inconsistent with forecasts (predictions, projections, etc.) of climate models, such as those that are used by the IPCC. I've long suspected that the answer is "nothing" and the public silence from those in the outspoken climate science community would seem to back this up. Now a paper in Nature today (PDF) suggests that the world may cool over the next 20 years few decades, and this would not be inconsistent with predictions of longer-term global warming.

I am sure that this is an excellent paper by world class scientists. But when I look at the broader significance of the paper what I see is that there is in fact nothing that can be observed in the climate system that would be inconsistent with climate model predictions. If global cooling over the next few decades is consistent with model predictions, then so too is pretty much anything and everything under the sun.

This means that from a practical standpoint climate models are of no practical use beyond providing some intellectual authority in the promotional battle over global climate policy. I am sure that some model somewhere has foretold how the next 20 years will evolve (and please ask me in 20 years which one!). And if none get it right, it won't mean that any were actually wrong. If there is no future over the next few decades that models rule out, then anything is possible. And of course, no one needed a model to know that.

3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

The advocates of global warming have said that "global warming is causing global cooling". Seriously!!

12:30 PM  
Blogger John M Reynolds said...

After much discussion about semantics and side issues, the original post has changed its wording around the words "next 20 years."

People are slow to learn that if nature can slow or reverse global warming, even temporarily over 1 to 3 decades, then it can also amplify it over a similar time period like 1977 to 1997. In other words, the climate models that do not take these oscillations into account should not be so accurate with the warm spells. Now they just have to add the AMO, PDO, etc to the models. Oh, and don't forget clouds which the Aqua satellite recently contributed data to better our understanding of clouds. Maybe we will be able to make the models accurate enough to be useful in political decisions by the time 2100 rolls around.

3:02 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

How did all these geniuses who predict global warming do in predicting the food shortage partially caused by their insistence on converting food into fuel?

6:07 PM  

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