China will not reduce its CO2 emissions....

No matter what happens, China simply will not, and cannot, cut its CO2 emissions...

He (Obama) will almost certainly fail: there will be no Copenhagen treaty. There will, no doubt, be an agreement, full of pomp and promising words, but no pact that would stem, let alone reverse, the continuing increase in carbon emissions. Nothing that will stop the relentless mining and burning of coal: the fuel that powers Asia, the fuel that made the clothes you wear and the screen you watch. As the world tumbled into recession last year, as the lights dimmed in factories and airlines skulked in hangars, the fuel consumed by the developing world for the first time exceeded that of richer countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). According to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy, energy demand in China rose by more than 7 per cent last year, while in the US it fell by almost 3 per cent.

The temperature in China’s blast furnace dipped slightly but is now restored. Tony Hayward, BP’s chief executive, tells a simple tale that explains the dilemma: as a young executive in Beijing he employed a driver who lived in a traditional house heated by a stove. Years later the man is still employed by BP in the same job, but now lives in an air-conditioned tower block with a car, a scooter, a giant refrigerator and flat-screen TVs in every room.

Millions want to follow in his footsteps, building a carbon footprint bigger than yours or mine. We in the West are not the problem. Our carbon footprint is about to shrink. Recurring oil crises since the 1970s have made the West more efficient and, for the third year running, OECD oil consumption declined.

It is Chinese craving for oil and coal that drives global energy markets. The People’s Republic was last year the biggest emitter of carbon, leapfrogging America, and it will carry on growing. According to the International Energy Agency, 97 per cent of the projected increase in CO2 emissions between now and 2030 will come from the developing world and three quarters from China and India alone. For every extra dollar of GDP, China emits six times as much carbon as OECD countries.

If carbon is a problem, the solution has to be in Asia. Without a commitment from those countries to curb emissions, Copenhagen is a futile gesture. No surprise, however, to learn that in Beijing and Delhi, the message is loud, clear and rising in irritation. There will be no curb, says China. The priority is jobs and wealth creation. Chinese emissions will increase with no date at which growth in carbon output will end. Beijing was in high dudgeon last week over the Waxman-Markey border tariffs and, in response, India and China told us where we could put our climate change treaty. OECD countries emit 11 tonnes of CO2 per capita for China’s 4 tonnes. The Asian duo are demanding cuts in American and European emissions of 40 per cent. Meanwhile, China and India will burn their coal.