Is this the end of the EU?

It looks like both France and the Netherlands may vote against the new EU constitution.

THE looming “catastrophe” of France and the Netherlands rejecting the European constitution is causing alarm in Brussels and apocalyptic warnings about the future of the European Union.

Debate is raging about what to do if the French vote “no” on May 29, but there is a growing consensus that it would be a turning point, marking the end of 50 years of “ever closer union”, threatening the single currency and halting enlargement, particularly for Turkey.

Some predict the EU’s fragmentation, with groups of member states increasingly banding together to pursue pet projects. Romano Prodi, the former European Commission President, said yesterday that a rejection by France, a founder member of the EU, would prompt the “fall of Europe”.

Peter Mandelson, the European Trade Commissioner, said that the best to be hoped for was stagnation. The Latvian President suggested that her country might not join the single currency.

For once, the French have it right.