Lomborg on the Stern Scare....
The chattering classes are all up in arms about the Stern Report in the UK and its dire warnings about global warming...who better to analyze the report than Bjorn Lomborg?
Mr. Stern is also selective, often seeming to cherry-pick statistics to fit an argument. This is demonstrated most clearly in the review's examination of the social damage costs of CO2--essentially the environmental cost of emitting each extra ton of CO2. The most well-recognized climate economist in the world is probably Yale University's William Nordhaus, whose "approach is perhaps closest in spirit to ours," according to the Stern review. Mr. Nordhaus finds that the social cost of CO2 is $2.50 per ton. Mr. Stern, however, uses a figure of $85 per ton. Picking a rate even higher than the official U.K. estimates--that have themselves been criticized for being over the top--speaks volumes.Read the whole thing..it's a great analysis.
Mr. Stern tells us that the cost of U.K. flooding will quadruple to 0.4% from 0.1% of GDP due to climate change. However, we are not told that these alarming figures only hold true if one assumes that the U.K. will take no additional measures--essentially doing absolutely nothing and allowing itself to get flooded, perhaps time and again. In contrast, the U.K. government's own assumptions take into account a modest increase in flood prevention, finding that the cost will actually decline sharply to 0.04% of U.K. GDP, in spite of climate change. Why does Mr. Stern not share that information?
2 Comments:
The 'social cost of CO2' is a dubious measurement, bordering on the ridiculous. If such 'measurements' hadn't been shouted from the rooftops for years now, then no one with integrity would even use them.
It would be fascinating to be a fly on the wall when a future historian studies the social phenomena of global warming, he'll probably regard our period in history in the same way we view the old alchemists now, the guys who tried turning anything and everything into gold.
The cost of warming in the UK is nothing compared to the cost in the third world. Fortunatly, their conditions are so poor, noone will notice if they get yet another dought or flood.
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