Is Russia becoming a Muslim state???
Some alarming statistics from Finland....
The Finnish Ministry of Defense has published a report available in English concerning the problems/challenges facing Russia. On page 51 under the heading of "Islam in Russia", the subject of Russia's challenges becomes even that much more interesting. It's the first time I've seen a Finnish Ministry report mentioning the possibility of Russia becoming a Muslim majority state.
Islam and Muslims in Russia pose a serious challenge to Russia’s internal stability and domestic policy. After the collapse of the Soviet Union the self-esteem and sense of identity of Russia’s 20 million Muslims have been bolstered. In 1991 there were approximately 300 mosques in Russia; the present number approaches 8 000. Half of the new mosques have been built with foreign financing, mainly from Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. In 1991 there were no Islamic schools in the Russian Federation. Now there are approximately 60 madrassas, attended by some 50 000 students.
Percentagewise, the largest Muslim populations are in the Volga-Ural region, Bashkorstan, Tatarstan, the North Caucasus and the Karelian Republic. In the Karelian Republic there are some 20 000 Muslims (3 % of the population).32
Another striking statistic is related to the growth of Russia’s Muslim population. Russia is about to face big demographic challenges. Russia’s population is diminishing by approximately 400 000 persons per year; yet, the population in 15 Russian regions increased in 2005. Each of them, such as Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetya in the North Caucasus has sizeable Muslim populations. The life expectancy among Muslim males is far greater than that of ethnic Russians.33
Paul Goble, an expert of Islam and the Muslim populationin Russia, estimates that the majority of Russian military recruits will be Muslims in 2015. In 2020 twenty per cent of the citizens will be Muslims, provided that the current demographic trends continue. If no changes occur, within three decades the majority of the citizens of the Russian Federation will be Muslims. Russian Muslims are a very heterogeneous group, ranging from Volga Tatars and multiethnic groupings in the North Caucasus to the new immigrants from the former Soviet republics in Central Asia.
Yet, they share one common denominator: their birth rates exceed that of the Slavic population.34 Looking at the statistics it becomes perfectly clear that Russian Muslims are going to play an important role in the future. This will not affect domestic policy only, but will also have an effect on foreign policy. Although Russia is an observer at the Congress of Islamic Organisation, its Iran policy also reflects Russia’s internal differences of opinion. On the one hand Russia seeks cooperation and shared interests but, on the other hand, it is wary of the Islamic world and sees itself, first and foremost, as a European state.
posted by GayandRight @ 8:24 AM
4 Comments:
Not a chance, the Russian Orthodox Church is experiencing a rapid growth even extending into China and Japan.
The nationalist fervor has also spurned on the growth of the church and the denial of a Saudi funded mosque in Moscow.
Yes,they have concerns of the lesser former Soviet states, that were Muslim in the first place.
But hey they're Russians, and will not bow to any foreign interference and political correctness like the rest of the world.
While I am very critical of Islamic doctrine and politics, I do not accept the hypothesis of Islam taking over Western Europe. There are factors that can reverse the decline in fertility rates among educated and prosperous populations. Increasing labour market flexibility for instance (so that a woman can actually quit for a few years and then return to her career or take part time work - the kind of flexibility that socialists see as exploitation; preferring that women take maternity leave and then return to work which makes parenting unnecessarily challenging). And cultures when men assist in child rearing, like Northern Europe have somewhat better fertility rates than more traditional southern Europe and East Asian peoples once they become industrialized.
Moreover, Muslim immigrant fertility rates quickly fall towards the native levels in a generation or two after arrival and the largest wave of immigration crested in the 1980s/90s. And the fertility levels of the sending nations are also falling quickly (though still high in some cases like Pakistan and Yemen). Some nations like Iran are already below replacement level fertility and North Africa is headed in that direction. Christian sub-Saharan Africans and Chinese and Indians as well as Eastern Europeans and Latin Americans are starting to dilute the Islamic populations of the Urban landscape. And apostasy among young Muslims in Europe is at least as prevalent as those who are becoming religiously orthodox.
Claims of non-integration are generally based on forgetting how long immigrant integration took in the past and from misleading comparisons of current first and second generation immigrants which masks inter-generational progress.
Not that Islamic practices and politics are not problematic for these societies but the Eurabia theory of Europe becoming Islamic does not seem credible to me.
But with Russia I have less to go on. They certainly have a crashing demographic picture and the changes needed to reverse that (a better economy, labour flexibility and non traditional family roles) don't seem likely. And Central Asian demographics pertaining to Muslims are difficult to find beyond the raw fertility rates of nation states. As Sam points out, the Russia Orthodox and also evangelical denominations are competing with Islam across the continent.
Sorry for the length of this comment.
I completely and succinctly debunk this report here:
http://congenialtimes.blogspot.com/2009/02/debunking-russias-demise.html
Interestingly I found Mr Wethman's post before coming back here. I have been becoming skeptical of the Islamic Russian scenario because of the lack of distinction between ethnic Muslims (maybe close to the around 20 million number) and self-reporting Muslims which according to an Interfax survey is estimated at 8.7 million. As in France, many more people tend to be counted as Muslims than actually count themselves as Muslims. But Wethman's article sheds even more light on the flaws in the scenario.
His post about maps of France's fertility distribution also casts some doubt on the claims that Frances fertility gains in recent years are attributed to Islamic immigrants:
http://congenialtimes.blogspot.com/2009/02/french-fertility-belt.html
Frankly I am concerned about the prevalence of theocratic, anti-democratic, pro-shariah and other views prevalent among many supposedly moderate Muslim communities but I also see progress in trends of apostasy (both christian and secular). As the numbers of such apostates increase in Western settings, the opportunity to feed back arguments and information into the sending societies via satellite TV, Internet content, tourism and other channels increases.
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home