OK, Let's have that free vote on Same-sex marriage

Somehow, given the makeup of the new parliament, I have a s suspicion that many Conservatives will prefer to wait on a vote on SSM until they have a majority in the next Parliament. Stephen Harper has said that if they lose the first vote on SSM (to see whether Parliament wants to re-open the issue) then it's over forever.

Well, at least two new Conservatives are supportive of same-sex marriage: John Baird and Garth Turner. There might be more. The Montreal Gazette notes that the new independent Andre Arthur has no interest in the issue, so he might also be a NO vote againt re-opening.

The Marriage Vote tracks votes on same-sex marriage, and right now they're at a dead heat. However, they don't have the voting intentions of a lot of the new MPs.