Iran's 'surge'...

Amir Taheri argues that Iran just wants the quick capability to build a bomb...

AS I have written before, Tehran's policy has never been aimed at actually making a nuclear weapon. From the late '60s (even before the Khomeinists seized power) it has aimed at acquiring what's called a "nuclear surge capacity." This means having the knowledge, technological base, infrastructure and raw material needed to make nuclear weapons in a short time - without actually making the bomb.

It's like someone who builds a kitchen and assembles the ingredients to make a soup at any moment - but decides not to do so for the time being.

Acquiring "surge capacity" was a key part of the late shah's overall strategy and has remained a pillar of Iran's defense doctrine. The late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini stopped the nuclear program in 1979 along with many of the shah's projects - but it was restarted long ago by President Hashemi Rafsanjani and has been pursued with varying degrees of vigor by his two successors.

How far has it gotten? As far as scientific knowledge and technological base are concerned, Iran has made great strides. It is also building the industrial structures needed through the centrifuge-making plants at Natanz and possibly Isfahan. For the needed raw materials, it is proceeding with its uranium-enrichment program.

So, the kitchen is built and the ingredients for the soup fast assembled. But no one can come up with a lawyer-proof case that the Khomeinists are actually building a bomb. But when, and if, such a case becomes possible, it may be too late. This is the beauty of aiming at a "surge capacity."

With the Americans settling scores with one another and the Europeans dancing around the issue, the Islamic Republic under its new radical leader is surging ahead to achieve the late shah's ambition. It's this fact that many might wish to ponder, not the Byzantine subtleties of an NIE crafted to please everyone.

It's certainly foolish to cry wolf where none is around. But it could be suicidal to pretend there can be no wolf where one may come along.