Seasonal forecasting in the UK....
Christopher Booker looks at the MET office and their horrible record in predicting the seasons...
Most people are aware that the UK Met Office has in recent years become something of a laughing stock. Its much-derided forecast that Britain would enjoy a "barbecue summer" this year was only the latest of a string of predictions that proved wildly off-target. Three years ago it announced that 2007 would be "the warmest year ever", just before global temperatures plunged by 0.7 degrees Celsius, more than the world's entire net warming in the 20th century. Last winter, it forecast, would be "milder and drier than average", just before we enjoyed one of our coldest and snowiest winters for years. And in 2009 it promised us one of the "five warmest years ever", complete with that "barbecue summer", when temperatures have been struggling to reach their average of the past three decades.Of course, if you believe the global warming dogma, then you almost have to forecast warmer temperatures all the time....
posted by GayandRight @ 4:33 PM
2 Comments:
Last year Environment Canada predicted normal to warmer than normal winter for Canada. They were wrong. It was colder and longer than normal.
Again this year Environment Canada is predicting a warmer than normal winter for Canada. Yet the Farmer's Almanac is going the opposite with with their prediction of a colder than normal winter. My money is with the Farmer's Almanac.
Environment Canada's pro-AGW agenda is getting tiresome.
They know very well that due just to natural variability that they're bound to get it right one of these years, so they're playing the odds and placing the same bet. Over and over again. Someone needs to tell them that they have no chips left.
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